Ireland was partitioned in 1921, with a majorly Catholic south and predominantly Protestant north. The catholic minority in Northern Ireland was suppressed with preferential allocation of housing and employment. The country was gerrymandered to keep the Protestants perennially in power. In 1972, the catholic calls for reform were rebuffed, leading to a campaign for Irish unification led by the Irish Republican Army (IRA).
There was incessant sparring between the nationalists, ones who wanted to join RoI and unionists, who were inclined to remain with the UK. This sectarian violence was called Troubles. It begun in the late 1960s and lasted for three decades, resulting in over three thousand casualties.
The 310 miles long border between the two countries was a major flashpoint in the warfare. It was installed with barbed wire and watch towers, while also being heavily patrolled. Strict custom checks were carried out on goods crossing the frontier, in fear of arms or explosives being carried in the freightage.
The Troubles finally ended with the Good Friday Agreement of 1998 which pandered to the nationalist desire to be closer to the Republic.
Also called the Belfast Agreement, it allowed all people in NI to choose between Irish, British or dual citizenship. The Northern Irish Secretary of State was given the power to hold a referendum for the unification of the two Irish countries. She could do so if there were signals that the majority of the Northern Irish residents wanted to join the Republic. Thus the UK identified NI as its sovereign, but also recognized its deep connections with the Éire.
The territory would have a devolved government, with internal affairs such as health, education, agriculture, employment etc. under the jurisdiction of Belfast (capital of NI) and external affairs such as defense, currency, and international relations under the Westminster (parliament of the United Kingdom).
This system gave the locals significant influence in decision making and kept peace in the area for a better part of the next two decades. Customs checks at the Irish border had ended in 1992 as the UK joined the European Single Market. By 2005, all border checkpoints were removed. The hard border turned into a motorway. It was almost invisible and acted as a symbol of peace.
All these developments were accompanied by a demographic shift in the country. At the time of the Irish partition in 1921, Protestants outnumbered catholics two-to-one. The border lines were drawn to ensure this lead, guaranteeing the presence of as little of the minority population as possible.
At the latest count though, the nation inhabited more catholics. Notwithstanding, demographics have come to matter less in recent times. For instance, many catholics, especially young ones, wanted to remain in the UK, pre-Brexit.
This had a few reasons-UK provides about 10 billion pounds annually in subsidies to the territory, as well as free health services and well-paid public sector jobs. Further, the citizens can be legally Irish and practice the indigenous culture with tax money raised by the whole of UK. It also benefitted significantly through UK’s affiliation with the EU, with several healthcare and social policies provided by the union. The dual affiliation was very beneficial for the state.
All seemed well until a fateful event in 2016, which gave it a fresh identity crisis.
In the Brexit referendum of 2016, NI voted against the cause with 56% nays, accordingly agreeing to stay with the EU. This mandate didn’t matter as UK as a whole chose separation. Besides, the finer details of the deal went against its favor.
Theresa May’s plan of a soft brexit suited the province better; however it was rejected by the ruling unionist government, which opted for Boris Johnson’s hard exit. The latter scenario required the placement of a hard border between RoI and Northern Ireland. All the parties involved in the deal wanted to avoid this scenario as it carried the specter of the region’s violent past.
The result was a border on the Irish Sea. It was a peculiar decision essentially making NI a part of the EU with obligations to abide by its laws. The Northern Ireland Protocol was applicable from 31 Jan 2020.
The sea-border necessitated the requirement of country-of-origin and other unnecessary paperwork for the movement of goods between Great Britain or GB( name given to UK excluding Northern Ireland) and NI, especially food products. This was a slow, expensive, and inconvenient process which resulted in many big British suppliers to cancel consignments to the other side. This was a major issue as Northern Ireland’s most important trading partner was GB.
This swelled business expenses, with rising freight and raw materials costs on articles. Many businesses were expected to fail, burdened by excessive overheads. The UK pledged grace period and other concessions to reduce the confusion but its efforts proved to be inadequate.
In the long run, supply chains could change, adjusting to the new realities in the region. The business from GB could be relocated to NI or RoI or even somewhere else in the EU.
There is resentment that the cultural and financial priorities of the province was not been taken into account by its parent. This has endangered peace in NI, hampered business, and jeopardized the integrity of the UK.
Even as NI has come to become reliant on British taxpayer money to fund itself, joining the Republic can be a fruitful venture.
Ireland is an affluent economy with the forth-highest per capita GDP in the world (as per IMF). The technology, finance, pharmaceutical and agriculture sectors have particularly thrived in the country, assisted significantly by foreign investment. It is also a major trading partner of NI. In 2017, trade across the border reached six billion pounds in the ‘All Island Economy’, as the combined economy of NI and RoI is called.
Unification is also a channel for NI to unite with the EU. This is especially pertinent for the young residents who do not heed the nationalist-unionist binary. In addition to financial assistance, EU has supported peace and cross-community relations on the island. The union has copiously funded the North, in the tune of 3.45 billion and 3.55 billion euros in 2007-2013 and 2014-2020 respectively. It spent 230 million euros on peace projects alone between 2014 and 2020.
Polling for unification is not consistent, but the wheels continue to turn.
Sinn Féin is a left-wing party active on both sides of the Irish border. During the Troubles, it was considered the political arm of the IRA; hence becoming a diplomatic pariah.
Unification is the main political manifesto for Sinn Féin. Its conditions for forming a coalition government include the other party’s assent for referendum election, which it wants to be held by 2025. Its strength in both countries is crucial for the future of the island.
Today, it is the third-largest party in Ireland. Lately, it has been polling better than the top two parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Its policies regarding anti-austerity measures, wealth taxes hikes, and rent freezing have proved to be popular.
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)-ruling party in Northern Ireland, and Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), the fourth biggest party are blamed for supporting the hard brexit cause. This resentment has helped Sinn Féin, which ranked second in the assembly elections.
Brexit has caused considerable resentment in the NI public, which as fanned out its rage through riots and violence.
Unionist paramilitary parties such as Loyalist Communities Council (LCC) have already withdrawn from the Good Friday agreement, believing the sea border has inadvertently gifted NI to the EU and supported the unification cause. They think it likely that If NI settles well into the EU system, and acclimatizes to its rules, the economic alliance could give way to permanent political ties.
On the other side, nationalists, who never favored the hard brexit, are disgruntled over its fallout. 88% nationalists voted against brexit compared only about a third of the unionists.
With 62% people also voting against Brexit in Scotland, a referendum seems forthcoming in the highlands. Its independence, if achieved, would reinforce the Irish unification movement.
Although the NI angst is noticeable, the groundwork for referendum is not ready yet. For consolidation to take place, separate referendums are required in both Irish countries.
Ireland is in favor of unification, but only if the finances work out. There is also apprehension regarding the position and rights of the unionists in the new country, in case the ballot goes through. A narrow vote may also engender non-cooperation by a sulking minority and result in an unstable government. A new referendum can only take place 7 years after the first, which would seem like an eternity in the aforementioned scenario.
For these reasons, both governments in UK and NI don’t want elections at least in the next 5 years, while the confusion and chaos caused by Brexit recedes.
The forthcoming centenary of Irish independence should have been a proud affair. Years of turmoil were succeeded by a period of peace and prosperity brought about by the Good Friday Agreement.
Yet, gross mishandling of border matters has soured the mood and the revelry at this historic juncture. An ill-fated decision by the unionists to support the hard exit has brought the Ireland as close as ever to joining the republic, even if the merger is not imminent.
The island is on the brink.
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